The Russian Assay Chamber provided the magazine «Navigator for jewelry trade» with the regular data about dynamics of wares incoming for approbation and marking-off to SASI (State Assay Supervision Inspections). What is happening at the jewelry market in 2011? What conclusions and forecasts can be made?

1. Consider Table 1.

Table 1. Dynamics of wares incoming to SASI, seven months 2011 in comparison with 2010 (progressive total by months) *

Year	Gold wares				Silver wares				Platinum wares		Palladium wares
	Russian wares		import		Russian wares		import		In total		In total
	million piece	%	million piece	%	million piece	%	million piece	%	thousand piece	%	thousand piece	%
1 month.10	2,18		0,16		3,2		0,96		0,47		2,09
1 month.11	2,61	19,7	0,12	-25	3,54	10,6	0,79	-17,7	0,36	-23,4	0,73	-65,1
2 month.10	4,92		0,27		7,28		1,72		1,26		4,16
2 month.11	5,6	13,8	0,35	29,6	7,88	8,2	1,72	0	1,25	-0,8	1,39	-66,6
3 month.10	7,95		0,37		11,93		2,54		2,4		6,67
3 month.11	8,79	10,6	0,56	51,4	10,97	-8	2,66	4,7	2,68	11,7	2,8	-58
4 month.10	11,73		0,49		16,24		3,54		3,59		8,6
4 month.11	11,63	-0,9	0,78	59,2	13,62	-16,1	3,82	7,9	3,73	3,9	4,24	-50,7
5 month.10	13,09		0,6		18,97		4,56		4,31		9,81
5 month.11	13,87	6	0,89	48,8	16,47	-13,2	4,78	4,8	5,3	23	5,35	-45,5
6 month.10	15,24		0,71		22,22		5,23		5,17		11,36
6 month.11	16,12	5,8	1,18	67,4	18,77	-15,5	5,65	8	6,25	20,9	6,46	-43,1
7 month.10	17,6		0,83		25,6		6,31		5,61		13,1
7 month.11	18,65	6	1,39	67,5	21,09	-17,6	6,43	1,9	7,19	28,2	7,39	-43,6

*Data of the Russian Assay Chamber

Manufacture of gold wares in Russia in the beginning of year grew almost on 20 % in comparison with 2010, then the growth slowed down, there was even a small "failure", but by August the rates of increase started to be restored. The final total for Russian gold is +6 %.

The situation with import of gold wares is opposite. In the beginning of year such jewellery has been delivered on a quarter less, than last year! But then import has started to grow huge rates. The final total for foreign gold is +67,5 %. However it is necessary to consider the fact that the share of import wares in the total volume of gold wares is not high – 1,39 million pieces from 18,65 million pieces. – only 7,5 %.

Manufacture of silver wares in Russia has enjoyed a boom in the beginning of year – 10 %, and then has started to decrease. The final total for domestic silver is -17,6 %. Most likely, this falling is caused by the fact that this segment of the market is already oversupplied: many companies "were switched over" to the release of silver wares in crisis years.
Import of silver wares has fallen in the beginning of year, then has a little grown, and now is approximately at the same level, as in 2010. The final total for foreign silver is +1,9 %.

2. Consider Table 2.

Table 2. Quantity and weight of the wares probed and marked–off in 2000-2010 and in the first half of the year 2011 года*

Year	Gold wares				Silver wares				Platinum wares		Palladium wares
	In total		Including wares of foreign manufacture		In total		Including wares of foreign manufacture		In total		In total
	Quantity	Weight	Quantity	Weight	Quantity	Weight	Quantity	Weight	Quantity	Weight	Quantity	Weight
	million piece	Tons	million piece	Tons	million piece	Tons	million piece	Tons	thousand piece	Tons	thousand piece	Tons
2000	9,74	24,6	0,263	0,7	7,558	35,44	0,73	3,4	22,944	104,2	0,103	0,3
2001	13,15	33,66	0,078	0,2	9,298	47,89	0,85	4,38	16,476	84,03	0,331	1,13
2002	17,63	42,7	0,105	0,59	12,19	60,37	1,66	10,09	19,56	109,3	0,897	6,11
2003	22,09	55,72	0,192	0,95	16,507	87,6	2,856	17,8	29,398	160,74	4,365	22,97
2004	26,94	68,48	0,401	1,66	21,429	121,83	4,32	28,03	17,804	96,42	8,878	38,82
2005	32,31	88,18	0,828	3,99	23,166	150,48	5,416	37,2	22,952	135,49	5,994	26,85
2006	37,32	96,82	1,57	6,2	24,98	155,3	6,09	43,91	24,04	157,41	6,74	30,3
2007	48,51	130,32	2,85	11,74	32,79	223,24	8,12	63,7	23,405	163,03	6,249	31,44
2008	46,68	126,92	2,78	10,39	41,97	268,83	10,65	79,9	29,39	211,1	6,78	48,15
2009	27,97	76,05	1,085	4,06	48,923	313,37	7,82	58,67	12,21	87,701	24,33	172,79
2010	33,85	76,6	1,73	4,91	56,51	246,84	11,45	69,51	10,98	79,17	23,32	83,48
2011 (6 month)	17,32	39,85	1,18	3,28	26,43	104,44	5,65	34,23	6,25	46,35	6,47	26,07

*Data of the Russian Assay Chamber

We must consider the fact that the wares incoming to SASI in the second half of the year usually is higher, than in the first one. Therefore, doing the forecast for all 2011, we will multiply results of the first half of the year by two and to consider this figure as a minimum.

Russian and import gold: in 2011 it will be produced and imported more products, than in 2010 and 2009, however «pre-crisis" years are still far.

Russian and import silver: for 2011 it will be produced and imported approximately the same quantity of wares as in previous years. And taking into account that the figures in comparison with "pre-crisis" years have not strongly changed, it is possible to say that some stagnation is observed in this segment of the market.

NAVIGATOR FOR JEWELRY TRADE 09-2011